Karst Valley Runoff Simulation Analysis

The formation of the runoff is very complex, the atmosphere by rainfall, surface factors and the impact of human activities, in karst areas,watershed hydrology, topography complex structure, in addition to climatic conditions, there are factors underlying surface of the basin, and Basin, with an uneven moisture content of soluble double medium structure, three-dimensional geographical structure, the dynamics of space basin, watershed boundaries, such as the opening of the characteristics of this complex hydrological system, the people on the Karst Valley runoff characteristics, revealed the Karst Valley Hydrological law is particularly complex.The hydrological system, the association is very complicated system, showing uncertainty and randomness, linear and nonlinear, time-varying and at the same characteristics, which revealed for the runoff of the process has brought great difficulties. In the Karst Valley, we attach great importance to its runoff, the mechanism of convergence. However, the hydrology of Inquiry based on field data measurements, observation conditions of the existing technology makes the accuracy of observation by a certain constraints, hydrological models need to be able to objective, comprehensive and reasonable reflection of the real phenomenon of hydrological system mathematical model. The establishment of mathematical models, we should reflect our concern to macro model output of the process factors. However, the present situation, the hydrology is not returned to the integrity of the mathematical description. Thus, are not forecasting a high accuracy.System theory that the objective is very complex hydrology, water quality at the small to micro-movement, the river floods to the macro-migration, different scales of hydrological the solution to the problem there is a difference.With in a certain time, the main elements of the weather changes with randomness, therefore, have close relations with its elements of the hydrological, and inevitably there are random. This characteristic is also reflected in hydrological forecasting methods and possibilities. Forecast the probability of elements play an important role.Runoff in sequence to a certain extent, can respond runoff in this period of change process, therefore, can be analyzed to find its characteristics and trends from these patterns and trends in the future can respond within a certain period of time, changes in runoff Trends, the forecast information received in the runoff series, including major changes in trends change, periodic and random changes and changes inIn this paper, a comparative analysis of existing hydrological forecasting model of the features and advantages and disadvantages, and on the basis of the system, optimize the use of present method of calculating the sequence in the runoff forecast to be improved, expectations of increased accuracy of the forecast model.