Application Of Grey Markov Model To Forecast Of Annual Precipitation

It is important for us to consider the forecasting of annual precipitation in hydrology and aerography.As is well known,it is also an important index of guiding for agricultural and a significant influencing factor of economy development.By using mordern prediction technique and statistic methord,annual precipitation can be forecasted from dealing with historical datas.It can afford decision support for weather,research of hydrology and economical production.Firstly,the original datas are optimized by slip averaging of three-point and the Grey Markov model is established.Secondly,based on the annual precipitation datas for 1985-2002 of Enshi of Hubei province,the model is applied to prediction and analysis. The annual precipitation from 2003 to 2008 is predicted,and compcered to unbias GM(1,1)model and slid unbias GM(1,1)model,The results shows that the forecasting precision is higher than others.Finally,we can afford some suggestion for Enshi city by these forecast datas.