Statistical Analysis And Research Of Main Meteorological Factors' Change In Qingdao City

Qingdao City in Shandong, as the important and seaside city in Chinese eastern region, has the superior natural environment and special geographies and long historical cultures, depends on developing steadily and healthily and continuously to promote the city popularity, has the more and more important position on the international stage.But the climate as be the important part in the ecosystem environment, affects the development situation of Qingdao City directly or indirectly, closely contacts the work and life of people in Qingdao City.To assure the harmonious development of economy with population, resources and environment in Qingdao City, to avoid the climate disaster bringing the huge influence to Qingdao City, this thesis introduces the ecosystem environment of Qingdao City at first, and analyzes respectively the geography position, geology, mountains, rivers, maritime space, soil, tides, plants, water and other resourceses, and the city development of Qingdao City and so on, and elaborates the relation between the city development and weather change, then gets an a series of related coefficients and conclusions according to analyzing and statistics of the observed data of the main meteorologic factors (average temperature, highest/lowest temperature, rainfall, sunshine hour) in the last almost 30 years in five cities and seven districts of Qingdao City, subsequently integrates information technique to manufactures the climate analysis system of Qingdao based on one elementary linear regression predictable model and the optimal cliamte normal model as the software system's arithmetic and valuation foundation, and to make full use of database software and computer function. This system has the perfect data management and the authorized operation functions, also takes statistics of the observed data of five main meteorologic factors for the weather forecast in the short or half-long term, and displays the changing states of the historical climate and simulates the future developing trend of the weather condition, and it can also calculate, take statistics and verify the conclusions raise credibility with inputting conditions;furthermore, along with adding and updating the data continuously, it modifies the related parameter to rewrite data of weather forecast automatically;also it can display such as column diagram( or broken line graph) and chart etc. on the screen and output the data(printed graphs or charts).Currently it's almost the physics methods used in meteorological service, based on the atmosphere theory and the instant information collected by way of the modern technique, then it input them into computer system to calculate and analyse by the related variants of physics, to simulate the climate at the next period of time, then to forecast respectively the weather of the districts every time.However the thesis adopts mathematic methods, the existing statistic methods, by taking statistics and verifying the observed data of the main meteorological factors, to establish mathematics models for forecasting the weather in the short or half-long term.It more easily more accurately forecast the short-term weather condition by adopting the physics methods, but adopting mathematics method to establish mathematics model is more used for the theories research and risk evaluation, to forecast the weather in the short or half-long term in the macroscopical view.Moreover it even more adapts to forecast the weather condition than each statistic software abroad for manufacturing the professional software system independently and exclusively based on the characteristics of the observed data of the main meteorological factors, and the idea of the mathematic statistic in the thesis. Thereinto parts of pivotal software code written independently are in the introduction of function module(no similar segments),easy to comprehend and communicate.In a word, the thesis founds a new method of the weather statisticses and forecast etc.on the original research methods, it adopt the method of taking statistics and establishing mathematic model and performing functions in the software system to analyse and estimate the main meteorological factors.Not only it can be the basis of risk valuation, but also be a new method of researching and developing meteorology theories.From the research object, different from the weather research of Qingdao before, it's also the first to collect statistics and analyse weather conditions everyplace in Qingdao City completely, and to display the trend graph of main meteorological factors, and to forecast the weather and so on;more importantly it can reduce the amount of calculation furthest, and more grant the demands of the harmonious development all-directions, even provide more valid science proof for the government decision maker.