Study On Emergency Chain-reaction Model Based On Disaster-pregnant Environment

Recently, emergency& emergency chain-reaction occurred frequently. The study on the emergency chain-reaction is an urgent demand. However, the current researches pay more attention on natural disaster chain than other kinds. Even, the chain-reactions between other emergencies are still known less.This paper is oriented to four categories of emergencies. It extends the disaster system theory to other emergencies; the chain-reactions between emergencies are analyzed based on disaster-pregnant environment (DE); the mechanisms of emergency chain-reaction are proposed; an emergency chain-reaction model is also established. The main contents of this article are as follows:First, disaster system theory objected to a signal natural disaster is introduced. The factors affecting emergency's occurrence are analyzed. The DEs of different emergencies are summed up. Based on disaster system theory, the principles of other emergences are analyzed.Second, the heterogeneous chain-reactions between emergencies are our objects. The factors affecting emergency chain-reaction are revealed. The relatives between emergency chain-reaction with DE are analyzed.Third, the chain-reaction mechanism based on DE is proposed; the emergency chain-reaction model is established. A chain-reaction model of "Snowstorm in South China" is built.Finally, the simulation experiences are designed. Given different emergencies and regional environments (REs), simulation results are obtained; Exposure of "Jilin Petrochemical Company" is also incorporated as an example to demonstrate the method proposed.This work is of great significance for emergency management. The common mechanisms of occurrence and chain-reaction for emergency are proposed, which is useful for comprehensive emergency management. According to characteristics of RE, the emergency chain-reaction model established can be used for predicting the situation of chain-reaction, which can help emergency agencies make well preparations, reducing losses greatly.