Change Of Agricultural Climate Condition And Response Of Agricultural Production To Climate Change During The Past 50 Years In The Eastern Part Of Jilin Province

This paper makes use of the dates of monthly average temperatures ,the monthly average precipitation ,grain yield,sown area from 1958 to 2007 from 10 weather stations of the eastern part of Jilin province.In the theory of statistics, the SPSS Statistical analysis software, EXCEL and MATLAB wavelets analysis functions are used to analyze the change of the meteorological element's ,which contain temperatures, the growing season accumulated temperature, precipitation of the eastern part of Jilin province in this 50 years. According to this , The relations between these and the change of grain yield and planting pattern were analyzed in this study.The agricultural production is directly related to human being's survival and development, and the stability of agricultural output is the foundation for the development of other industries. Jilin Province is one of major agricultural province in China, its grain marketed proportion, the average amount per capita, the grain assign out the quantity and the corn volume of exports occupied are always in the first place in China at the last decade. Therefore, the study on the production of grain crops of JiLin is of great significance to maitain the food production safe of our country. This article set about the change of temperature and precipitation which affects the crops' production mostly to study the law of the temperature and the precipitation change near 50 year ,the grain yield, the sown area and the output as well as the change of planter pattern of rice, corn and soybean those are the staple crop of the eastern part of Jilin province .As a result, it provides the theory basis for the agriculture's sustainable development and the security of the grain production of the eastern part of Jilin province. The study indicates:⑴In the last 50 years, in the eastern part of Jilin province, the temperature of Tonghua is relatively higher; the BaiShan's and Yanbianzhou's is very close; those three area's seasons as well as the multi-annual mean temperature represent the obviously tendency of increaseing. Jian and its surrounding area is the high temperature center according to the multi-annual mean temperature , and the middle of Chanbai is the center of low temperature. Days of the growing season≥10℃accumulated temperature and the length of the growing season obviously continues increasing. The eastern part of Jilin province's precipitation change a little. The middle of Changbai is the center of a high multi-annual mean precipitation, and the western Tonghua is the center of low.⑵In the last 50 years, those three areas in the eastern part of Jilin province, the grain ultimate output as well as the yield per unit of area represent the tendency of increasing, but the sown area is reducing. In the last decade, the planting proportion of corn and soybean which are the staple food crops is increasing, but the rice's planting proportion change a little. In this 50 years, grain crops output, the grain crops sown area and the yield per unit of area and the temperature are obviously related, but they are slightly correlative with the precipitation. Compared with 1998, in 2007: the percentage of rice of Yanji, Dunhua, Tumen, Longjing, Hunchun, Antu, the Tonghua urban district, Ji'an, Wangqing, Liuhe, Changbai was reducing, and Yanji reduces least. But the corn proportion was obviously increasing ,and Longjing change mostly. The percentage of corn of Ji'an, Jhingyu, the Tonghua urban district, Linjiang, Fusong and the Baishan reduced slightly. The percentage of soybean of Dunhua, Hunchun, Fusong, Changbai, Linjiang, Chingyu, Huinan and Meihekou changes a little ,and Tumen, Wangqing, the urban district of Tonghua, Yanji, Longjing, and Wangqing was reducing, but Tumen was reducing mostly.