A Study Basis On Grey Model For PCDD/Fs Emissions In The Incineration Process Of Municipal Solid Waste

The fast-developing economy and enhanced living standard in China have led to the generation of more and more municipal solid waste (MSW). It is said that incineration of MSW is one of the most useful technologies because of its advantages such as volume reduction,mass reduction, and toxicity reduction. The application rate of incineration technology has increased year by year in China; however, incineration also has its own problems such as PCDD/Fs emission, which are toxic compounds produced in the incineration process of MSW. And this has become the key problem that restricts the further development of incineration techniques in China.It is complex and difficult to control the formation and emission of PCDD/Fs in the incineration process of MSW, it is also complicated and arduous to predict the quality of PCDD/Fs emission. In order to research the problem of the quality of PCDD/Fs emission in the incineration process of MSW deeply, this dissertation established GM(1,1) model and unary linear regression equation, and predicted the quality of PCDD/Fs emission in the incineration process of MSW for China and Japan respectively, according to the relevant data of the quality of PCDD/Fs emission in the incineration process of MSW in the past years. And this dissertation also calculated the relative errors of the prediction results of the models, and verified forecasting accuracy of the models by using a testing value. This dissertation made a comparison of the prediction values of the quality of PCDD/Fs emission in the incineration process of MSW between China and Japan, and also analysised the reasons for the rule which presentated by the quality of PCDD/Fs emission of China and Japan. By means of comparison and analysis for the prediction results of the models, we can find that the accuracy of GM(1,1) model in the process of predicting the quality of PCDD/Fs emission in the incineration process of MSW is higher, it's prediction results can provide advisory opinion for the decisions and planning and designing in the MSW incineration field in China.