Study On Real-time Trace Techniques In Risk Predition Of Coal And Gas Outburst

High coal and gas outburst mine distribute widely around our counry, meanwhile with deep minning, burst risk heavily increased, threated coal workers and heavily blocked safety production, so it is great significant to study real-time trace techniques in risk prediction of coal and gas outburst and mechanism, develop new real-time dynamic prediction skills.Detailed study is implemented to the real-time trace techniques in risk predition methods and data analysis of coal and gas outburst in the paper, and based on analysis of the outburst mechanism, find out the stress distribution, the changes of gas pressure and the stadus of AE(Acoustic Emission) before-after the outburst. Studied the single index of AE and gas emission, and established the basic parameters determined model using probability distribution. In order to evaluating the gas emission quanlity in driving face, built the exponent smoothing prediction model and gas emission model applying time series analysis.Under precondition of gas and AE parameters, established the item of AE comprehensive index using AHP (analytic hierarchy process) analysis and fuzzy synthetic method, and set long index in 8h and short index in 3h. On the basis of the parameters of deviation and variance, built the item of gas comprehensive index, put foreward the new comprehensive index DI (Dangerous Index) based on the comprehensive index of AE and gas emission.Comparing with the routine prediction indes, it has proved the feasibility and accuracy of WS and AE in the application of real-time trace techniques in risk prediction of burst, and the real-time property is much better than the routine prediced index.