Research Of Sandy Desertification Prediction Mode Based On Grid Criterion

China takes a rose of one of the most serious sandy desertification countries. More than that, there is a trend of acceleration since the end of 1950s. So the prediction research is important and necessary for sandy desertification. However, little research about it shows limited method at home or abroad.A typical sandy desertification area– the middle of the lower reaches of Tarim River was treaded as the research area, this research set up the consummate prediction mode for sandy desertification, which contains predictive indicator system, forecast model and prediction level standard. Indicators of the model were dispersed in the space, and the distribution of sandy desertification degree was come true with grid criterion, which means 30*30 meters. So the evolvement process of sandy desertification could be simulated and predicted successfully in the space. Both of the"intermissive- water conveyance"and"no-water conveyance"conditions were treated for sandy desertification forecast in 2015 and used for prediction analysis.The results show that all of the according rates of sandy desertification simulation achieved more than 90 percent, fulfilling the precision request. Sandy desertification degree would reverse locally but worsen in the whole in 2015 in the condition of"intermissive-water conveyance", and it would deteriorate rapidly on both local and total aspects. The prediction area was quite small beyond the forth condition, but it increased expansively under the latter one.The conclusions were that this prediction mode could simulate and forecast the distribution of sandy desertification, which may provide a new consider for its prediction research. Eco-water conveyance had notable reversion effect for sandy desertification in some local area, but could not change the trend of exacerbating in the whole area, which means the reversed action had some of localization. Area that need for prediction mainly distributed around Daxihaizi Reservoir and along the riverway on the lower reaches. There is necessary to improve the conveyance method and enlarge the conveyance range under the permission of intermissive-water conveyance in order to change the continuing aggravation trend of sandy desertification for the whole area.