Research On Application Of Grey System Theory In Coal And Gas Outburst

Coal is the main source of energy in China.Nowadays,coal still take the biggest part in China's energy structure,as high as 68%,and this phenomenon continues.The scale of coal mining in the next few years will continue to expand. As a serious natural disasters that threated the safety production,coal and gas outburst is one of the most damaging nature disaster that seriously restrict the economic efficiency of mine and threatened the safety of miners, because of it's sudden and highly destructiveness. Along with the further development of coal resources, more gas outburst accident must hanppen because of deep coal mining. Facing with this,much more studuies have been taken by scientist domestic or abroad and got some result,but there are still a long way.Based on grey system theory created by Mr. Deng Julong, and coal and gas outburst forecast status at home and abroad and it's factors,processes, and the general laws of the theoretical research results,we analyzed a series of outburst index by related degrees.and orderd them.Then use the modified the GM(1,1) method simulat and predict one of the outburst index.Finally,combined with the field data and actual situation, We analyzed controlling factors and determined the relevant parameters of mine coal and gas outburst of this mine, used the improved forecasting model to predic it.Verified by examples,it can greatly improved the reliability of safety assessment and security forecast by using improved grey prediction model to analyze and predict coal and gas outburst. Using these results can guide outburst prevention and reduce the production unit of economic losses and casualties and improve the safety level of production.