The Study On The Technology Of The Gas Emission Rate Prediction Based On Trend Surface Analysis

The task of the prediction of mine gas emission rate is to determine the amount of the gas emission rate in the new mine, new level, new mining district and new working face, in order to provide the basic datas of gas emission rate for the mine ventilation, the gas emission rate is one of the essential parameters for the designs of mine ventilation, gas drainage and the choices of the reasonable gas control measures, it determines the section of the main ventilation roadway, ventilation capacity and the choices of mining sequence and the methods of gas drainage and mining. The prediction accuracy of the gas emission rate directly determines the security and economical benefit in the normal mining period.This paper offers a method of trend surface analysis to predict the absolute gas emission rate based on the previous studies, we discovered that the gas emission rate is a multivariable function in the Gaocheng coal mine based on the statistical analysis and study of its plentiful gas material which are measured on-the-spot, the gas emission rate changes in a gradual trend rather than an irregular way which is high or low suddenly, the multivariate mathematical model of trend surface analysis is established based on the study ,and the relationship of polynomial functions which is go along with the gas emission rate in this coal mine is found out, the picture of trend surface analysis and residuals are drawn by the computer according to the relationship of the polynomial functions, and we offered a predicted method of mine gas emission rate based on the picture and other mining conditions, the contour graph of gas emission rate in Gaocheng coal mine was drawn by the means of interpolation and extrapolation according to the the prediction results and the field test data. The calculation error ratio of the prediction method of gas emission rate by trend surface analysis is less than 15%, the trend surface analysis is superior to other predicted method of mine gas emission rate by the accuracy test of its prediction results and the results comparison with other predicted method, the results shows that it is feasible and reliable to use the method of trend surface analysis to predict the gas emission rate in Gaocheng coal mine.