| Aqueduct structure is an important component of water conveyance project. And the security is also very important. The structure performance has degradation after a period of time associated with various structure damages. The bearing capacity of the structure decreases. At the same time, reliability level will be reduced too. Therefore, it becomes very important to quantitative analysis reliability level changing with time. Time-dependent reliability research of Aqueduct structures is not only the foundation of engineering structure design and maintenance management optimization, but also provides an effective way to assess the durability of engineering and remaining life prediction. Time-dependent reliability research of Aqueduct structures is based on concrete degradation prediction and attenuation model of resistance. Considering structural damage caused by rebar corrosion, resistance attenuation model is established. Through the analysis of the structure of each place aqueduct failure mode, limit state equations are established. Then reliability changing with the time is calculated. Basing on this, the main content of this paper is summarized as follows:(1)Analysis and prediction model research of Concrete degradation.(2)The Support Vector Machine (SVM) forecasting model of concrete degradation is established basing on parameters optimization of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).(3) Some basic calculation methods of reliability and system reliability are studied, and various methods are compared. Monte Carlo simulation method is used for the analysis of time-dependent reliability.(4)Basing on the resistance attenuation model caused by rebar corrosion, time-dependent reliability of aqueduct component structures is calculated. Eventually considering the main failure modes of components, the system time-dependent reliability will be get.(5) The whole research is summarized and the prospects to the further research are put forward.
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