Research On The Subway Travel Demand Based On Multiply Social & Economic Factors

With the sustained growth of economy and the increasing of total population, more and more cities are faced with the problem of heavy traffic. It is suggested that vigorously develop urban mass transit is of great significance to alleviate traffic congestion. Urban mass transit in china has entered a period of rapid development after forty years development. By the end of 2010, china has eleven cities in operation of mass transit and another more than twenty cities are planning or building urban mass transit lines. The rapid development of rail transportation is the key to ease traffic pressure and promote the development of the city. This thesis takes Shenzhen subway as the object, first analyses the impact of social economic variables on subway travel demand. Second, uses the time series analysis forecasting Shenzhen subway travel demand. Third use the econometrics model to study the subway travel demand.Mainly studying contents and conclusion of the thesis are as follows:(1) Established a framework of subway travel demand research by Appling econometrics basic theory and travel demand theory,(2) Established a travel demand model based on the passenger traffic demand theory and travel behaviour analysis(3) Used the exponential smoothing model to predict the Shenzhen subway passenger volume, average price, and get the subway fares income.(4) Constructed a dynamic regression model which consists of the fare, population, CPI, employment, per capita disposable income and other social economic variables, and get the specific form of model by using the ARCH test and cointegration test of Eviews software.Through the analysis of the thesis, we can understand the influence of social economic variables on subway passenger volume, which can help related department to formulate corresponding policy to guide the passenger making choice between subway and other traffic modes. It is usable to shunt the traffic flow efficiently, Make full use of various traffic resources and to ease traffic congestion. In addition, through the analysis of this paper we can know that reasonable fares and other public policy can make the operation more successful and make sure the sustainability of subway.