Extreme Risk Analysis Of Flood Season Limited Water Level

Nowdays,flood reason limited water level is staticslly controlled in most reservoirs,which wastes plentiful flood resources. National flood conrol commanding office attaches much attention to this issue,and organizes reservoir dispatchers,universities,research institutes and corresponding units to study methods for controlling flood season limited water level.Dynamic control is an effective approach to achieve more complete and reasonable exploitation of flood resources,which can peomote benefit and incur risk for flood control securiry.Extreme risk is key to demonstrate the feasibility of dynamic control scheme,and is the main basis of decision-making.Firstly,the status of our nation's water resources,flood and arid hazards is overviewed to illustrate the necessity for study on dynamic control of flood season limited water level.Disadvantages in traditional limitsd water level design, static control of limited water level design,static control of limited water level and fuzzy limited water level curve are pointed out,and mending methods for these are introduced.Dynamic control and its key problems are analyzed hi next section.The allowable range of limited water level is determined,so as the allowable extreme risk index.The definition of extreme risk is re-illustrated,risk analysis methods in reservoir operation is discussed either.According to the definition of extreme risk rate,the allowable extreme risk rate of reservoir is systematically demonstrated with variant extreme risk indexes and flood season limited water level.Secondly,based on frequency analysis and taken Baishi reservoir as an example,study is carried out on extreme risk rate of limited water level dynamic control,which considers the security of dam and downstream protecting objects.Case study shows that with the prerequisite of variant extreme risk index and limited water level,methods for computing and querying extreme risk rate is feasible.Computing tune is consumedly reduced with graph solution,and GUI offers a practical tool for decesion-makers.This method has extensive application potential to new built reservoirs without forecasing operation conditions.In the end,conclusions are made,and problems to be further studied are discussed.