Modeling And Simulation About Water Price System Of The East Route Of South To North Water-Transfer Project

This paper most studies the water price calculating, impacts evaluation and the corresponding simulation system developing. The research results can provide the operating plat for the data query and the policy decision for the government apartment. And by using the water price's leverage, the saving-water consciousness can be strengthened for the east-route provinces and cities, and the water resource's lasting development can be promoted for the local regions.Based on this paper's objective and meaning, the water price system simulation model that is based on the system engineering, water price theory, input-output analysis is presented. During the water price calculating, this paper takes the industry enduring capacity and the inhabitant enduring capacity as the restriction condition, the least payment, the maximal benefiting and the maximal sewerage quantity as the optimal objective function to form the multi-target optimal model, this can make the water price evaluating more precise and reasonable.Water quantity prediction is the base and premise of water price calculating. This paper uses moving tendency forecasting modeling, GM forecasting modeling and BP neural forecasting modeling to forecast the water requirement of the future, evaluates the forecasting results, and confirms the forecasting results; the industry water price elasticity index and the resident water price elasticity are calculated with the multi-linear regression method; the water resources value is evaluated with the marginal opportunity cost method considering the transferring water, other parameters are evaluated and estimated by using some methods of connecting with objective laws and estimation.The water price system simulation plat is developed with Java language as the basic developing tool, this plat has very good interactive interface. Water price evaluating during the different economic conditions can be simulated by the plat. The factor analysis affecting the water price can be gone on by this plat.