The Bayesian Networks And It's Application For Generation Systems Reliability Assessment

The generation systems reliability assessment is one of the most important part of power systems reliability assessment. .The reliability assessment study to generation systems is of critical theoretic significance and great social economic worth. In general reliability assessment computation, only are the reliability indices computated, little has been done to identify the weak components. However, identifying the weak components is very important.The paper briefly introduces the basal conception of Bayesian networks, then further studys the general inference algorithm, and the Bayesian networks inference program based on bucket elimination is developed. After analysing the usual reliability assessment methods, a new reliability assessment method based on Bayesian networks is presented. The process of this method is as follows: Firstly, build the Bayesian networks models for generation systems reliability assessment; Secondly, anayse the generation systems reliability by using Bayesian networks inference program. Considering the actual generation systems scale is very large, the Bayesian networks automatic generator tool of generation systems reliability assessment is developed. Using this tool, the building-time of Bayesian networks is remarkably reduced and the reliability assessment model's accuracy is improved.Due to Bayesian networks provide a flexible representing method for uncertainty knowledge. The uncertainty of load forecast is absolved easily by using Bayesian networks method. Utilizing efficient and flexible probabilistic inference of Bayesian networks, not only can loss of load probability be computated , but also the weak components of the systems be identified. For the first time, the parametric sensitivity analysis method based on Bayesian networks is adopted. By using this method, the difficulties of forming the formulation of parametric sensitivity analysis and its partial derivative formulation are overcome.The test results in the IEEE reliability test systems (IEEE-RTS) have verified the effectiveness of this new method and the software,also the results of more complex multi-area generation test systems are also reported. The results show that the new method is valid and available.