GIS-Based Dynamic Seismic Disasters Prediction To Urban Water Supply Pipe Network

Abstract Many earthquake disasters have demonstrated that a water supply pipenetwork in a city may be vulnerable to earthquake and the secondarydisasters are more serious. So , it is necessary to build GIS-based dynamicseismic disaster prediction to urban water supply pipe network for theneed of earthquake hazard mitigation. This paper presents some methodsfor solving these problems, which is based on the fact in our country. The seismic disasters features and behavior mechanisms of the buriedwater supply pipeline are analyzed by synthesis and the breakage of thepipe joints caused by seismic wave propagation as main disasters mode isled into. The soil-pipe interaction, and the soil-pipe slippage arediscussed. Statistical experience method resulted from earthquakeinvestigations and theoretical methods based on reliability theory areintroduced. The reliability of buried pipeline is researched. The methodfor estimate connective reliability of network by means of Monte Carlesimulation technique and Breadth First Search method is introduced. Theconnective reliability of water supply pipe network is researched.Considering many factors of seismic disasters prediction are availableas temporal change, the GIS-based dynamic seismic disaster prediction tourban water supply pipe network by means of Grey Theory and ProbabilityTheory has been created. These presented methods have been programmed byC language. The model and the program have been tested in practice ofdynamic prediction to seismic disaster of water supply pipe network incertain city.