Reliability Evaluation Of Distribution System Based On Bayesian Network

Reliability evaluation of distribution system is important for decision-making of it. In this paper a reliability evaluation method based on Bayesian network is presented. It can compute the reliability indices of distribution system effectively, quantitatively analyze the reliability weakness of each load point and simply the calculating progress very much. Moreover, Bayesian forecasting model is proposed as basic research of reliability evaluation. Because of the application of prior information like historic data and operators' experience, Bayesian parameter-forecasting model assure the computing precision caused by scarcity of origin reliability data in distribution system. At last, reliability evaluation software of distribution system is designed by high object-oriented technology and ADO database technology of Visual Basic 6.0, and proved practical.Yang Xiaodong(Power System and Its Automation)Directed by Ass. Prof. Li Ran...