Analysis On Sensitive Factors Of Slope Stability And The Slope Displacement Prediction

With the development of economic construction, people now face more and more slopes, and the slopes problems have become more important than before. As one of the three most important problems of geotechnical engineering, the slopes problems have already got more people's attention, improving the correct understanding about the slope and its action form, further studying the action factors of the slope's displacement and analyzing its sensitivity, both have important value, not only in theory but also in actual use, for slope design and its treatment.The deformation and failure of slope is one long-term change course, the slope stability is affected by the slope's inherent factors and external factors, including the type and nature of rocks and soils, the slope geological structure, the slope shape, the groundwater, the vibration, the climatic conditions, the weathering, the slope's vegetation and mankind's project activity, and so on. Of which, mankind's project activity and the groundwater are of great impact. In this paper, the action mechanism of influence factors are summed up and summarized.In order to study the influence degrees which main influence factors impose on the slope, the sensitivity of main influence factors about soil slope is researched in this paper, the main factors' influence levels are computed and analyzed, the relativity between slope safety factor and every sensitivity factor are researched, and the regression equations are set up. The studies have shown: All the relativity between slope safety factor and every sensitive factor are rather remarkable. Of which, for the slope high and the slope rate , their relativity with safety factor are curve relation; for soil unit weight , soil cohesion , soil angle of internal friction , water table and earthquake intensity , all their relativity are straight-line relation. As soil cohesion or soil angle of internal friction increases, slope safety factor increases; but with the increase of the other factors, slope safety factor is reduced. Among all the influence factors, water table , soil angle of internal friction and soil cohesion are more sensitive to slope stability than others, the greatest change of safety factor is caused by the slope rate , followed by water table , then the slope high and earthquake intensity , the last one is soil unit weight . Based on the result of sensitive factors analysis, the slope's engineering can be more effectively guided to deal with main influence factors.The trend and development of slope's displacement can be predicted and fitted by using the theory and method of prediction, which can offer the effective basis for the prediction of the slope's failure. Utilizing the time series analysis principle, the mathematics model of the trend of slope displacement can be set up to dynamically simulate the change law of slope's displacement, the model can well adapt to the dynamic change of slope for its characteristic of real-time trace, and it can be used to predict displacement in the real project.