Study On The Methods Of Travel Time Prediction For Urban Roadway

Traffic jam affects greatly the further development of urban and travel ofpeople. ITS can solve the serious traffic problem. The travel time prediction is animportant research item in the field of Intelligent Transportation Systems. It canprovide real-time, accurate, reliable Travel time prediction information for its coresubsystems Advanced Traveler Information System and Advanced TransportManagement Systems of the ITS, and satisfy what the system function need fortravel time prediction, for so that ITS can quickly and accurately find out roadnetwork operation state, then make the benefit of the society and the economybiggest. Therefore, This paper focuses on the study on the methods of travel timeprediction for urban road way, based on the National Science FoundationItem "Study on crucial Theoretical and method of intelligent highway trafficincident surveillance system"and the key Project of National Science Foundation"Research on the principal theoretical model and simulation technique of dynamictraffic management and control in urban network".Basing on the different study object, the travel time prediction is classified by3 kinds: the travel time prediction of urban roadway, the travel time prediction offreeway and the travel time prediction of express way. The study of the traveltime prediction of freeway and express way was developed early and gained somefruit, but the fruit of the travel time prediction for urban roadway lacked, thisdissertation would study the travel time prediction for urban roadway. Basing onthe different content of study, the travel time prediction is classified by 2 kinds:the link travel time prediction and the route travel time prediction, because of therequest of the route travel time prediction for data is high, this dissertation wouldstudy the link travel time prediction only. The link travel time prediction wasclassified by 2 kind: the link traffic flow average travel time prediction and thesingle vehicle travel time prediction, the study content of this dissertation wasfocused on the link traffic flow average travel time prediction and the bus traveltime prediction of neighborhood stations which is the special case of the singlevehicle travel time prediction.Through ascertaining the user and the demand of the travel time prediction,we know that the users need the high precision and the low cost of the travel time...