| The flood is the root that becomes the flood disaster and results the losing, and often endangers the safety of the people, at the same time it is a kind of beneficial, available resource. It becomes the problem that be paid attention to by experts more and more, how to reduce the losing of the flood disaster and make it best effective .If reservoir flood can reasonably be utilized, it not only is the foundation for the circumferential agriculture, prevent or control flood, but also provide the basis for the reasonable allotment of the generator set. In the admissible condition, the maximal output of the units and the maximal energy production will be obtained. So making the effective and accurate forecast is an important research, it has the very strong theoretical and realistic meaning.The path and model of the hydrology forecast is introduced in this thesis, and the principle of every kind of familiar hydrology model is expatiated. Explained the localization and study of the hydrology model and applied trend, the Xinanjiang model is detailedly discussed based on it, and the parameter of the model is introduced, it summarize the method that identify the model's parameter before.The parameter identifying of the hydrology forecasts model is very important and difficult work in the flood forecasting. The optimizing method of the traditional forecast model parameter is discussed in this thesis; at the same time the heuristic optimizing method that used extensively at present is explained briefly. And also the principle, characteristics, development process of basic genetic algorithm in optimizing calculation is presented mainly. Based on the application of summarizing the basic genetic algorithm, an adapted genetic algorithm with variable genetic operator is presented.Finally, the adapted genetic algorithm in this thesis is tested with the example compared with the basic genetic algorithm. Then summarize the full thesis and give the outlook.
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