Distribution Systems Reliability Evaluation Based On Monte Carlo Simulation Technique

Distribution systems connect the consumer directly, and its supply reliability can make great influences on consumers. Some research works about improve reliability model and evaluation algorithm are presented in this paper.Firstly, the research contents and basic concept of the distribution systems reliability are given, as well as domestic and international research status at present.Secondly, two basic methods-Analytical method and Simulation method, for distribution systems and the improved algorithms based on these two methods are summarized in this paper. At the same time, system reliability indices formulas are also introduced.Thirdly, in the part of improved model, a distribution systems reliability evaluation model which considered multi-influence factors is presented, and then this reliability evaluation model is used to calculate reliability indices. Traditionally, researchers always ignored influence factors on reliability evaluation, or only considered one or two aspects. In this paper, some influence factors are combined to form a more reasonable model for distribution reliability evaluation, such as weather factor, component life factor, restoration resources factor, time varying load model and so on. The calculation results followed this approach are more accurate compared with the results of traditional ones.In the part of improved algorithm, a Monte Carlo based approach for fuzzy reliability evaluation is presented. This approach both considers stochastic events of distribution systems and fuzziness of components parameters. Reliability indices with different confidences can be obtained by this approach. Using fuzzy set theory, reliability data are represented by membership functions, not a single value. These membership functions represent the uncertainties in failure rates and repair rates of components.