Establishing An Sea-route Safety Forecast Model By Using The ANN In Analysing The Sullage In The Sea-route

With the development of the water carriage, the freight quantity increases peryear, and the tonnage of cargoboat increases too. The sullage in the sea-route is one ofthe serious problems hampering our water carriage field in the future. In response tothe development of China water carriage trade, mending the sea-route's silt can insurecargoboats safety. It is urgent to set up a suit of scientific and maneurerable sea-routesullage monitoring system. Most of the seaboards in China are sludgy, so thesea-route's silt is a serious problem in our country. Thus, in order to guarantee thesafety running of the port and to gain the optimal economic and social benefit, it ishigh time to analyze and estimate the sea-route's silt and take effective measures toprevent and control. The main research contents and achievements are summarized asfollows:1) Arcview3.3 is used to calculate the sullage in the sea-route. GIS is a newscience field involved in computer science, geography, environment science, spacescience, info science and management science. Its biggest strongpoint is that itcombine the space information and property information faultlessly. Now GIS isapplied into the military affairs, town planning, transportation and mapping fieldswidely.2)This paper designs a kind of BP network and analyzes the example of thesea-route in Tianjin port. The BP network is one of the arithmetics of ANN. ANN cansimulate many frames and functions of organism, and is applied in the engineeringand other fields. The ANN possesses the merits of rapid speed of calculation andcharacteristics of accepting the errors. Common studying method is to set up anidiographic model and the model must be the combination of linearity andnon-linearity of importance, but sometimes the model does not possess a good effectbecause of complexity of the factor. The ANN has advantage on comparative withother model, so the ANN can be applied on the sea-route safety monitoring.The result indicates that the method of this text has good precision, adaptabilityand common ability and can be widely applied to the field of the the sea-route safetymonitoring system.