Research On Chaotic Forecasting & Chaotic Optimization And Their Applications In Power Systems

With national economy growing fast and GDP improving markedly, every sphere, such as economy, society, living, need more energy to be provided with growing demands. In last many years, national power industry developed slowly so that electricity energy couldn't be served enough to country's hunger, and dug up large supply-demand gaps, which had taken more disadvantages with normal economic running of industrial sector and routine lives of citizen. In the end of 2003, power plant constructions had been appearing blowout-growing, as a result many low-capacity, ungraufied power plant projects are starting working, as such which have resulted negative effects to steady, healthy, continuous development of power industry. In my view, some radical reasons are as followed: one the one hand, national economy develops faster than that of any historical period, especially in large-scale industry sector and mining sector etc, so far they have greater demands than before in electricity energy. But power sector growth has the development cycle, it leads that power capacity now drops behind electricity demands in fact; on the other hand, power industry reforms and innovations don't achieve completely, many polices such as detaching of power plant from power transmission network, electricity bidding in power transmission network, coal-power link etc. established by government haven't been carried out and extended efficiently, so optimal power capacity dispatch can't come true now. Thus it can be seen, that power supplies accommodating with national developing exponential and steady, healthy running of power industry are the key to holding the balance of national security and economic growth. It's the very important strategies that carrying out Short-term Load Forecasting (STLF) and Economic Load Dispatch(ELD) researches deeply to dispatch power capacity availably, improve power output and efficiency, decrease running cost.Chaos science is the new subject, chaotic forecasting and chaotic optimization belong to two different branches of it, which both can be applied to engineering application widely. In this paper, many problems about chaos sicence are discussed and analyzed, such as basic chaos concepts, research information and applications, determination of chaotic time series, the fusion of Phase Space Reconstruction Theory(PSRT), parameters selecting, computations of Lyapunov exponent, at the same time, chaotic forecasting and chaotic optimization and their application in power systems are researched extensively and deeply.A Improved Chaotic Neural Networks(ICNN) is presented and applied to Traveling Salesman Problem(TSP), the simulation results are excellent. Another Chaotic Simulated Annealing model with Decaying Chaotic Noise (CSA-DCN) is proposed and creatively used to solve Economic Load Dispatch (ELD) of power systems.Because power production and transmission are nonlinear and complex, many power production links and exponentials have chaotic characteristics. Compared with conventional computing forecasting and optimization ways, chaotic measure owns unique advantages: less environmental noise effects, higher efficiency, real-time analysis, more extensive application areas, so that it can offer the resolved plans for majority difficult problems and optimal running of power systems. But chaos research is beginning from its birth, for its applying in more industry sector many creative works must be done later. New models and ways are presented in this paper, the author hopes that these works are helpful and developmental to other authorities.