Risk Analysis On Real-time Flood Dispatching Model Of Zhangze Reservoir

The content of the paper is a sub problem of scientific research item of Shanxi water conservancy bureau which is 《Project Studying Task for Sufficiently Utilizing Groundwater Resource in ZhangzeReservoir---Developing Dynamic Control of Flood Control Level andResearching Reservoir's Real-Time Dispatching》 . Aimed at Zhangze reservoir's increasingly outstanding conflict between flood control and useful control, risk analysis on real-time flood dispatching model of Zhangze reservoir is studied and established, and the risk analysis on real-time dispatching software is programmed, basing on the real-time automatic system targeting at hydrologic data's collection, transmission, disposal of Zhangze reservoir catchments and the finished real-time dispatching model.Based on study and research on the basic theory of risk analysis, the risk analysis on real-time flood dispatching of the reservoir is discussed theoretically, and the actual application is investigated taking Zhangze reservoir as a study setting. Be based upon the former study fruit and the actual circs of the catchments, the concepts of positive forecast error, negative forecast error, limit positive forecast error of designing and limit...