Mid-Long Runoff Intelligent Forecasting System Of Ertan Power Station

Mid-long runoff forecast is an advantage measure and important step of full using water resource, implementing reservoir optimal run and completing economic benefit.Especially under the electricity market circumstance, hydropower takes part in competitive bidding. So that for set the generation scheduling reasonable and accurately, forecasting the forture runoff looks very important.If we have accurate result of runoff forecast, we can understand future runoff by using the accurate forecasting result and the certain estimate error, therefore, we can get the power station's run strategy which is close of the fact on the base of the beginning track of management(get run strategy and scheduler rule on the base of many years data by use of optimal arithmetic) so that we provide for increasing generate electricity benefit and drawing plan of taking part in future power market.However , because hydrology state changing has effected by many kinds of uncertainty factor(for example , climate change ,human activity and physiognomy change), the rule is not completely clear and hydrology information is not sufficiency, which takes on random,blur and gray and so on . So that forecasting the future runoff of year, month acutely is always the most difficult of hydrology forecast.For better hold the future runoff circs of Ertan reservoir , In this paper ,subjects mainly focused are as follows:...