Analysis Of Super Short-term Load Forecasting

The load forecasting is the basis for the security and economic operation of power system. The demand can be pre-estimated and projected by using load forecasting. Based on these projections, we can take specific technical operation to improve the economy and reliability of power system. As power system is concerned, improving the security and economy of grid and the quality of power are all dependent on accurate load forecasting. Therefore, the key is to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.Along with the power enterprises entering the market and the power market maturing, the market set higher requirements for the load forecasting. As an important indicator, grid frequency needs the supply and demand to maintain a balance. But because power can not be reserved, we have to forecast the load accurately, if we want to adjust generation rapidly and reasonably. Super short-term load forecasting plays a decisive role in improving the quality of grid frequency. It will play an increasingly important role in the economic operation of the power system. In this paper, three models of super short-term load forecasting are proposed: multi-sample extrapolation; linear extrapolation; time series. At the same time, analysis the factor which affects the choosing of similar day, and propose three models of choosing similar day: using the type of day; using load value; using load and load increment value.The forecasting model presented in this paper has a high speed and high...