Small Samples And Bayes Statistical Inference Methods Of Characteristic Value Of Structures' Resistance

Resistance is not only the important content in structure reliability analysis, but also the most important, most complicated parameter in the structural design. Estimating the parameter and distribution model of resistance inaccuratly, no matter how accurate mechanics calcation of the structure. Therefore, to grasp the parameter of resistance accurately, to adopt rational distribution model and confirm the characteristic value of resistance are the premise of reliability analysis.Present-day standard only regulates the probability of nonexceedance of the characteristic value of material, not define for the characteristic value of resiatance. To found the statistical inference method of the characteristic value of resiatance, the paper first derives the probability of nonexceedance for the characteristic value of resiatance for 19 kinds of common components by analysing the influence parameter of resistance;then proposes small samples and Bayes statistical inference method of characteristic value of resiatance, combining statistical inference method in EN and International Standard ISO2394. Two instances are discussed in this paper: the unknown coefficient and known coefficient. Based on information of parent and sample, small samples statistical inference methods of characteristic value of resistance is studied. By comparative and analysis, paper points out the rational of this method. The basic idea and principle of bayes method is stated. Adopting noninformative prior distributin, it is presenred small samples and Bayes statistical inference method of the characteristic value of resistance, for the unknown coefficient and known coefficient. Giving the traditional method and Bayes method comparing analysis, it points out the difference in inference results, and recommends the relatively beneficial inference methods.The the disquisitive progeny of paper can provide more rational and more feasible method for performance test on prefabricated components and existing structure elements. The disquisitive progeny of this paper may provide reference for the actual standard used in our country.