Research On Short Term Prediction Of Passenger Flow For Beijing-Tianjin Passenger Only Line

Research on the passenger flow prediction mainly concentrate on medium and long term prediction in the current, less involved short term prediction for delicated demand. The dissertation analyzes the passenger travel demand as well as supply and the environment, taking economic gravitation and potential factor into account, then predicts the induced traffic with improved economic induced model. The original data are easily gathered and the method is more convenient to operate and transplant compared to the elastic coefficient and demand curve method. For the trend transport, the dissertation makes use of disaggregate model which is more delicated than the four-phase method for the distribution rate of passenger flow, and then attains the passenger utility function and passenger time value which can explore their relationship between time value and flow fluctuation. The dissertation selects the joint SP&RP method from the estimate methods to overcome the disadvantages which separately uses SP or RP data may lead to. After the model estimation and MM revise method, the paper gains more precious results and less squared error than the SP way. According to the result of distribution rate of passenger flow and time value, the dissertation figures out the trend transport transfer transport and induced transport together with market share of each traffic mode under different velocity of Beijing-Tianjin Passenger only line. Meanwhile it obtains month demand prediction in target years by mensuration of season alteration factor and trend factor. Therefore, the research provides the transportation organization with scientific reference and decision theory foundation.