Study On Models Of Track Condition Prediction Based On Track Geometry Car Inspection Data

Safety is an eternal topic of railway transportation. To guarantee the safety of railway transportation, the line equipments' integrality and quality equilibrium should be ensured. This Paper studies on the Track Geometry Car inspection data. On the base of inspection data and the model of track condition of domestic and international, the author studies on the problem of the inspection data in china, then develops a model of mileage revise and finally develops a model of track condition prediction based on the Track Geometry Car inspection data.The Paper studies two key problems. One is the mileage revise of the Track Geometry Car inspection data, the other is the model of track condition prediction based on the Track Geometry Car inspection data. The Track Geometry Car inspection data is the base of the model of track condition prediction, how to access these data and their accumulation, storage, analysis, integration is an important research content of the paper. The gray correlation analysis of Gray theory is used for studying the mileage drift problem of the Track Geometry Car inspection data and proposed a mathematical model. The paper analysis all kinds of track condition evaluation, then develops a model of track condition prediction suiting only for the exactly point based TQI.With theoretical research, it is also used in the Jinan Railway bureau. In this system, it used the mileage revise model and the track condition prediction model. So the system tests the accuracy and useful of the model.