The Dynamic Predict Model Of The Transportation Load Based On Heredity Arithmetic BP Network Time Series Method

The dynamic estimate of the transportation load is the premise that carries on the road design and evaluation, whether what it predict is right or not will influence directly to design and evaluate of rationality.The transportation load is under the influence of various factor.Especially along with the change of time, the transportation load will present a dynamic state.All things have its proper regulation. The change of the transportation load that is through the years' should also have certain regulation.This kind of regulation is not a general regulation, it is a complex. The former traffic volumes predict methods have carried on a research on this regulation, but the result isn't especially good.The technology of Artificial intelligence provide better theories for improvement of the predict method.The accuracy of the predict is improved by the nerve network. But it also has weakness.For making up these weaknesses, this paper put forward combining together the heredity arithmetic way and the nerve network, using the heredity arithmetic way to optimize the nerve network .The nerve network optimized by the heredity arithmetic is better to reflect the internal relation of the transportation load.Make use of the nerve network which has optimized and trained to predict, we can get ideal result.This paper create the estimate model with the method of the artificial intelligence.Aiming at the nonlinear estimate system, this paper adopt the heredity arithmetic to improve the BP network.The heredity arithmetic way can looks for an excellent characteristics overall situation. Make use of this excellence to optimize the weight and value of the BP network. It can overcome the inherent shortcomings of BP network .Then Use this more excellent GA-BP model to predict the transportation load.This paper adopt the MATLAB language to emulate the model which has set up and verifiy the practicability of the model.By contrast with other predict methods,we get the GA-BP calculate way is superiority.This paper use the average transportation load data from 1988 to 1993 of henan province to train the model, then prove its by use the transportation load data of 1994 . Contrasting with the result of other different predit methods,the GA-BP can get a accurate result.