The Research In Safety And Accident Forecast Model Of Road Traffic Of Beijing

As China's accelerating urbanization process, urban construction, rapid development and the rapid increase in urban population, the rapid expansion of urban traffic load, urban road fast development and economic and social development at the contradiction between becoming increasingly prominent, urban road traffic accidents frequently occur. As the national capital of Beijing, the road safety situation is not optimistic, 2000, the death toll of road traffic accidents in Beijing is 1468 for average, ranking the forefront of the cities of China. Research in Beijing's road traffic safety conditions and factors affecting have great significance to improve the production safety situation.In this paper, based on the municipal science and technology commission, "the Beijing Municipal Safety Production trends and changes in factors affecting research" subject, summed up the domestic and international road safety status, statistical analysis of the Beijing municipal road safety situation and development trend of road traffic accidents and abroad The development of a comparative study found that the increase in road traffic accidents and the country's economic development and growth of the mobile has a direct relationship between mobility and the process will be accompanied by traffic accidents and casualties of the rapid growth. Through the application of accidents caused by two types of hazards due to the impact of Beijing's road traffic safety on the factors affecting the classification study, explore the people, vehicles and roads, environmental conditions and management of Beijing's road traffic safety impact, the study results show that city motor vehicle energy in the form of the accidental release of vehicles and vehicle collision-based, of the total number of accidents of 51 percent, followed by motor vehicles and road traffic environment of the crashes, of the total number of accidents of 30 percent, resulting in the first class dangerous source of energy accidental release of all the factors, because of the mistakes which led operation energy control failures accounted for 83% of all the factors. Through a comparative study of accidents in recent years at home and abroad commonly used forecasting methods in light of research papers, identified by a gray system accident prediction models to the accident rate in Beijing to predict the future, and that the 2008 Beijing road traffic accident death the number of forecast data, the accuracy of tests, the results of its forecast with high credibility.According to Beijing's road traffic accidents over the years of statistical analysis, this paper from engineering control, management control and PPE control to improve its road safety situation in the proposal, isolation from the risk of traffic accidents in the first category of vehicles that is the source of kinetic energy of accidents distribution channels and control the release of the second category of dangerous source of two proposed measures, the hope that through this research, relevant administrative departments can grasp the city road conditions and development trends, clearly the focus of the work safety management and response, development of management control objectives, a reference and information to support the policy of the government.