The Genesis And Prediction Of The Flood Disaster In The Yujiang River Basin

In the Yujiang river basin, there are a few important cities of Guangxi province,such as Bose,Nanning,Guiguang and Guiping,etc. In all of them, Nanning is the capital of Guangxi province, and it is also the political, ecnomical and cultural centre in this region. However it can just provent 20 year-return period's flood, even if the accomplishment of the Bose reservoir, this will be no more than 50 year-return period. The Laokou project is just under the plan, so the situation of the basin is extremely severe.The flood phenomenon is a result of the natural system, however the flood disaster is the result of both the natural and social system. It's a show of the relationship between the human beings and nature. The natural cause is the genesis of the flood disaster, but the development of the mass society is the other main one.This thesis is on the foundation of the application of gray systematic theory and the 28-flood's datas in 121years,which is from 1881 to 2001.Basing on the analyzing of the basin's genesis, the data pool of the disaster's factors have been built making use of gray systematic theory. And then, their correlation has been calculated and sorted. After all these have been done, the gray predictable model—GM(1,1) has been chosen for the flood prodiction of the basin using the 28-flood's datas, and accuracy checking has also been maken for the model. At last, the control policy for the flood disaster in this basin has been put forward.The result of the study shows that the genesis and prediction of the flood disaster in the Yujiang river basin is effective and practical in the help of gray systematic theory. Thus a new method has been put forward for the study on flood disaster in this area.