Study On Cascading Failure Forecast In Power System

Since power system has gradually developed into a super-large-scale complex system, partial failure may spread rapidly to large regional or even the entire network, the possibility of a large-area blackout is increasing. The cascading failure is an important factor of the blackout, so it is necessary to strengthen the forcast and analysis of the cascading failure, then search the potential dangers and propose adequate measures. It has great significance for preventing the occurrence of a power outage, and ensuring that the power system operates securely and economically.The cascading failure forecast of power system is explored and researched in this paper. To start with, the mechanism of the blackout accidents at home and abroad in recent years is analyzed, and the characteristics of cascading failure accident are summarized. On the Basis of this, new reliability index for the cascading failure forecast is put forward, this index considers both the possibility and the disastrous degree of the cascading failure, and can be used to forecast the follow-up failure which should be considered firstly. Then, with the combination of the analytical method and the heuristic-search method, the forecast algorithm and detail process is presented which considers the factors such as the protection, security automatic device acts and the mark of end and so on. Furthermore, the failure prediction process of the EPRI-36 bus system is simulated using the power system analysis software package (PSASP), the feasibility of the algorithm is verified. In order to improve the speed and efficiency of forecast, a project is built with VC++ programming language to realize the function of friendly interaction, calling PSASP flow calculation module and transient stability calculation module,as well as index calculation and automatic search. Finally, the program is applied to simulate a number of prediction examples under different running status, some of the features of the cascading failure are concluded, the foundation for subsequent in-depth study is laid.