Study And Development Of Distributed Load Forecasting System For District Power Grid

Load forecasting is one of the basic tasks for the operation and management of power system. Forecasting the tendency and the characteristic of future load variety of power system is very significant for the power system: on one hand, it plays a very important role for the dispatching department, marketing department and planning department; on the other hand, load forecasting is the precondition in real time control, network planning, plan of the purchasing/selling power, plan of the dispatchment and so on. Moreover, exact load forecasting results can reduce the cost of generation. Although many forecasting methods have been applied for the load forecasting field, searching new forecasting models or algorithms are still a hot topic.At the same time, some software package of load forecasting exists some shortcomings, such as forecasting methods and models are not rich and usually too simple. Thus, it is great imminence to develop a new load forecasting software package, which contains abundant advanced and newest forecasting models and could provide various forecasting results, such as: one-day ahead load forecasting, one-week ahead load and electricity energy forecasting and the holiday load forecasting and etc.Considering the above mentioned, this thesis focuses on the load forecasting and content is as follows:Firstly, a new forecasting method of combining grey model with support vector machine is presented, The method not only overcomes the disadvantage of big forecasting error of grey model for some dramatically floating loads, but also gets rid of the defect of support vector machine needing large quantitity datum. The instance reveals that the forecasting precision of the new method is obviously improved. Secondly, with the help of the the history load datum of a district power system, a lot of forecasting methods are tested and analyzed, and the practical and veracity methods are picked up. Based on that, a modul having practical and newest abundant forecasting methods is built up.Thirdly, a new distributed load forecasting strategy is proposed in order to adapt the features of covering large area and having the complicated load characteristic of a district power system. The test results show that new forecasting strategy has better forecasting precision, comparing to the traditional centralized load forecasting strategy. Finally, a practical software system, titled"The system of forecasting and management of the load and electricity energy for the customer requirement of the power market", is developed. The system has friendly interface, reliable running, and is easy to update. The system has passed the strict checkup and test organized by many professional experts and the comment for it is: this system is most advanced in our country. Since being applied to the district power system for nearly half a year, the system still runs normally and has produced good benefit.