Study On The Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Of The Wind Farm

Wind power has the best foreground in all the reproducible energy. Adjusting energy structure and strengthening energy safety has become a national hotspot. The utilization of the reproducible energy has obtained high recognition, in particular to the utilization and exploitation of the wind power.Wind speed forecasting is very important to the operation of wind power plants and power systems. It can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact of wind power plants on power systems and enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against other power plants in electricity markets. It is also useful for power system to regulate power dispatching plan. wind speed forecasting is also an important basic work of wind power forecasting and wind farm layout and design. Wind speed forecasting is a wind power research hotspot and a technology need and the most emergent need is to improve short-term wind speed forecasting. The paper introduces wind speed forecasting methods and their application characteristic, realizes wind speed short-time forecast based on time series analysis method and ANN and summarizes and improves the forecasting method.Matlab software is provided with many toolboxes with strong computing ability and numerous functions. Constituting forecasting model,parameters identification,forecasting and analysis can be realized through Matlab.Firstly, the paper summarizes the wind power industry developing actuality. Secondly, the paper summarizes the forecasting theory and forecasting result analyses, introduces several forecasting methods, forecasting models and the application of MATLAB software in forecasting arithmetic research.Thirdly, the paper introduces the conception of time series and the process of time series modeling, expounds the process of wind speed short time forecasting based on method of time series analysis.In the following two chapters, the paper introduces the content about ANN(artificial neural network) including general developing situation of ANN and BP network design,train and forecasting method, expounds the process of wind speed short time forecasting based on method of BP network. The paper puts forward a method—time series neural network forecasting method based on time series analysis method and ANN, expounds the process of design and realize.At last, the paper discusses and summarizes some important problem, points out the deficient and what should be improved in the following work.