Research On The Method Of Modeling Explosion Breakup Space Debris

Space debris is one of the negative factors to human aerospace activities, threatening the on-orbit spacecraft. So it is essential to research space debris and establish the space debris model for analysis of the current space debris environment, prediction of space debris threat to the human aerospace activities, risk assessment to the spacecraft on-orbit, the spacecraft protection design and setting down the mitigation measures. Research on space debris includes two parts: the method of the modeling space debris environment and the source of space debris. An effective and accurate source highly supports space debris environment model. In the past, domestic research more emphasis on modeling algorithm than the sources. Based on the background above, this paper aims modeling the spatial density of explosion breakup space debris, obtains the spatial density of explosion breakup space debris with the public record of spacecraft breakup events.Firstly, this paper integrates EVOLVE4.0 breakup model and long-term orbital perturbation theory, and primary modeling the spatial density of explosion breakup debris. This paper raises the space-grid method to reduce the huge computation in the long-term orbital perturbation of space debris.Secondly, this paper sums up the on-orbit explosion events based on History of Satellite Fragment 13th Edition breakup, simulate the on-orbit explosion events before 2004, builds the data-base of explosion breakup space debris, and evolve the orbit of debris in the database, obtains spatial density of explosion breakup space debris in January ,2004.Finally, this paper compares the result with the corresponding output from MASTER2005, and analyses the similarities and differences between them, raises a few problems to be solved.