Research And Implementation Of Power System Short-Term Load Forecasting Based On Wavelet Analysis

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) means load forecasting from next one day to next week, the most typical is the next day's load forecasting, it is also the focus of this paper. Accurate STLF plays an important role both in production planning, unit maintenance scheduling, economical and safe running, which directly influences the profit of the electric utility enterprises, and in the construction of electric power market, which need competition and economic ensure between the electric power corporations. The short-term load forecasting is based on analyzing the specialty of the real load and applying the knowledge of mathematic and computer to forecasting model, finally obtains accurate forecasting results.The main researches in this thesis are as follows:Firstly, the principle, features, current status and development of the electric power system short-term load forecasting are generalized in this thesis. And then it makes a summary of many traditional and modern load-forecasting technologies, introduces the application of Wavelet Analysis in electric power system short-term load forecasting.Secondly, via vertical and horizontal pretreatment, the historical load data can furthermore show the load changing trend, which establishes the basis for short-term load forecasting model using these historical data. By using the autocorrelation function on input variables selection for load forecasting model. In load forecasting, firstly obtains load hefts at different frequencies by wavelet transforming, then forecasts every heft by data regression multi-analysis, in the end fits every forecasting result together to get the final result.Thirdly, short-load forecasting application is based on cross-platform. The application is developed with Java. It could run on different operating systems such as Windows, Unix, Linux, Solaris etc. More important, the flexibility and openness of the application is expanded by advanced software development ideas such as design patterns and so on.Finally, the conclusion of the paper is done, and the development trend is predicted.