A Research On The Forewarning Of The Safety Of Inland Water Transport

As the development of our economy, heavy demands on resources bring extreme pressure to the transportation of goods. Vigorous development of the inland water transport has given effective solution to this problem, but it has also brought many negative impacts. The situation is grim for water safety. In order to prevent and control the accidents, our government has formulated and promulgated a series of laws, rules and regulations. However, the accidents have not been effectively controlled. Grave accidents frequently occur. It is an imminent task for the government to establish an appropriate administrative organization and operative mechanism.Nowadays, the analysis method used in security domain has not been able to break through the following control mode: that is, the accidents happen firstly and control mechanisms follows. As the increase of ships inventory and the speeding up of running, this kind of model has already been difficult to sustain, needing new theory to be able to realize the traffic safety science which can control in advance.This thesis has absorbed suggestions from experts. According to the characteristics of appraisal object, we have established the safety indicator system of inland water transport on accident target. What is more, we give weights to some useful targets and evaluate the safety of inland water transport by comprehensive evaluation in the end.The research of this thesis includes the following five parts:(1) Based on the awareness of research aim and the significance, we have explained and analyzed the current situation and progress of the study which is relative to the theory of forewarning, forewarning theory on business management and traffic domain home and abroad.(2) Based on the appraisal to the accident origin mechanism model, we have explored the origin mechanism of inland water traffic accident. In addition, we have expounded the forewarning system's basic principle of inland water traffic accident and induced principle of design about the method.(3) We have analyzed the current development situation, accident characteristic, explicated the organizational structure and the function of Ships Company and induced the crack of management. Then, we have analyzed the inland water traffic accident from the human, the ships, the environment and management and made the analysis to four typical inland water accidents at last.(4) In view of the characteristic of shipping industry and business management, we have proposed the traffic safety forewarning system's organization way of inland water, established the frame of responsibility system about forewarning management, and designed the work flow of forewarning system.(5) We have established the forewarning indicator system of inland water traffic safety, discussed the determination of forewarning target value, designed the output of forewarning signal initially, and carried on the gray multi-level comprehensive evaluation with the example to those indicators.