Reliability Assessment Of Distribution Systems Based On Bayesian Networks Sequence Simulation Reasoning

The distribution systems reliability assessment is one of the most important parts of power systems reliability assessment. Because distribution system is the direct joining part between power network and the vast power customers, its reliability is the issue power supply enterprise and customers are very concerned about and also a very important research direction. Distribution networks reliability research's purpose is to provide customers with safe and reliable power supply, thus obtains the best economic and social benefits. The algorithm of distribution systems reliability assessment is an important issue on the study of distribution systems reliability. Reliability conventional calculation involes various system reliability indexs, but rarely touches upon the identification on the weakest links of reliability. However, the identification has a very important significance. This paper presents a kind of distribution systems reliability assessment model based on sequence bayesian networks after summarizing some commen distribution systems reliability assessment algorithms. This method build a bayesian network model of distribution system reliability assessment firetly, apply sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning algorithm to distribution system reliability assessment, make use of forward facing sampling technique, make use of bayesian networks'flexible representation about uncertain knowledge, make use of "User Distribution Coefficient", carry out a better assessment of reliability indicators of distribution network, make a solution of the distribution system's flexible causal reasoning and diagnostic reasoning and identify accuratly the weak links of clamp distribution system reliability.The system simulation is based on the simulation of basic components. The compenents and system simulation reasoning's convergence rate can be accelerated using accelerated stable methods of components.A kind of distribution system reliability assessment software is developed with Microsoft Visual C# as a development tool. The software make a calculation about reliability indicators of distribution network using sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning algorithm with a high-level object-oriented technology and graphical means, quantitatively analyses the weak links in the distribution system and obtain more meaningful conclusions than traditional methods by data analyzing and processing. At last, IEEE-RBTS bus2 Experimental System proves the method's correctness and software's effectiveness. So reliability assessment of distribution systems based on sequence bayesian networks simulation reasoning is a better method.