Study On Risk Analysis And Calculation Method Of Flood Regulation For Flood Control Projects

In this paper,according to the actual physical process of flood regulation for flood control projects,the risk factors in the flood control are identified,analyzed and quantified in the first place.The principle of the variance analysis is applied to the risk factors of sensitivity analysis and the transform method Esscher is used on relevant factors for adjustment and control.Secondly,based on analysis of uncertainties,in view of the advantages and disadvantages of stochastic simulation and the maximum entropy method,this paper presented a method to integrate the two methods and proposed a new risk calculation method -SMEM method,setting up the corresponding mathematical model at the same time.Finally, this specific method has been applied to reservoir flood control and river flood risk calculation,and its verification,analysis and comparison are implemented.Under the same condition,the results proved that this method can not only take full advantage of known information and obtain the required estimate of the probability distribution,but also compared with the stochastic simulation method which can achieve the same effect,the speed is doubled.