Predicting Deformation And Analyzing Activity Of The Kezier Reservoir F₂-Fault In Xinjiang

Activity of active faults is related to project cost and engineering safety; it is very important to imply monitoring for the active faults and analyze its characteristics and discipline of activity. The object of this paper F₂-fault passes through the dam area of Kezier reservoir and threats to the safe operation of the reservoir. This is the focus of the study that how to analyze the cross-fault deformation monitoring data for 40 years and predict the trend of F₂-fault deformation; analyzing and interpreting the activity of F₂-fault. Finally, evaluate the active F₂ faults to run on the impact of dam safety.In this paper, through the learning activities and research activities of F₂-fault and the general fracture status, first, establishing the content of Paper work and technology route, second, making use of wavelet analysis, time series analysis theory and method to establish the deformation prediction model for four sequences in the first observation station, third, using dislocation model theory of fault to calculate the calculate the volume level of twist and sliding angle, and analyze the activity of F₂-fault. Finally, using the results has been calculated and analyzed to evaluate the activity of F₂-fault. In this paper, the results of research mainly in the following several aspects:1)The horizontal and vertical fault activity rates have been calculated through using cross-fault monitoring data about nearly 40 years;2)Making use of Forward-looking reading data to calculate accurately the rate of ground tilt.that can be proved by Velocity field of groung tilt;3)Based on the flow leveling data, isogram of ground subsidence rate near the plates from top to bottom in the reservoir has been drawed, and the groung tilt rate of top plate on the first deformation station;4)Making use of upper and lower fault rate of ground tilt to correct the activity rate in the vertical direction and calculate the volume level of twist and sliding angle, and the activity of F₂-fault has been analyzed;5)Making use of wavelet analysis, time series, Fourier analysis of time- frequency to establish the predict model of the observation sequence in first deformation station and evaluate the predicte accuracy; 6) The use of above five results, combining with the results of previous studies on the active F₂-fault to make a preliminary evaluation.