The Research On Construction Industry Aceidents Forecasting And Countermeasures In China

Various types of particularly serious accidents have frequently occurred in recent years which have had a major negative impact on China's national economic development. Therefore, scientifically studied each kind of casualties change tendeney of our country enterprise to production will be able to provide the referenee for our country safety in produetion to constituting reasonable solving measure.The construction industry aceidents forecasting is the important content of the research of constrction safety.The purpose of construction industry aceidents forecasting is to analyze the tendeney of constrction accidents under existing constrction conditions, evaluate the feasibility and Practical effeetiveness of construction safety measures reasonably,control the factors, affeeting construction aeeidents,and reduce the constrction accidents.The charaeteristies such as nonlinearity, randomness and uncertainty in construction system make it difficult to foreeast construction aeeidents,the behavioral feature of construction system.Based on the analysis of existing macroscopic forecasting methods of construction aeeidents,the forecasting models of construction aeeidents in consideration of multiple attribute characteristic of construction system are constructed in this thesis, The time series forecast model based on BP network is the key introduction among them.This article established the accidents death number of all the construction enterprises from 1990 to 2007, also trained and simulatied time series model whieh is based on BP network. the simulation result of neural network was more accurate than the result of ARMA through compared with eaeh other .The results showed that the forecasting model which based on BP network had thei deal forecast ability.Based on the accidienr forecast,from the aaspects of management and technology,and some Countermeasures are put forword from the aspects of law,insurance,science and technology.