Decision Analysis Of Cascade Hydropower Exploitation Project Of Baishuijiang Mainstream

Bai Shui Jiang River originates from the east foot of Minshan Mountain, which flows through Jiu Zhai Gou County in Sichuan Province, and finally converges into Jia Ling Jiang River. Bai Shui Jiang River has the following characteristics, that stable mainstream, abundant water quantity, suitable to be built for the chief reservoirs, and fall value collected mainly in its lower reaches. In summary, there are many good conditions for cascade hydropower exploitation. Futher, the cascade hydropower exploitation of Bai Shui Jiang River will face a large scale of water conservation engineering which possesses high economic value and great social significance.Cascade hydropower resource exploitation is a systematic problem, which involves too much impact factors so as to result in great risks in its project decision and implementation. Therefore, in order to get the target that cascade hydropower exploitation project is completed successfully and the expected return and benefit are gained, optimized exploitation project is necessary. The effective ways to acquire optimized projects have been established, which under the guidance of systematic analysis method, with the application of decision management theory, the prepared possible projects can be evaluated. Consequently, the better project can be screened out. If any simulation condition has been designed, a demonstration analysis to the evaluation result may be done, which can explain and provide the proof for the rationality and reliability of the selected project.In this research, the theory and method of decision management is adopted to study the decision problem of Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation, so as to achieve the goal of exploitation project optimization. The main works of this research are as the following:(1) The prepared projects of Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation are constructed.(2) From the four dimensions of energe, market, investing and financing, the prepared projects of Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation are analyzed.(3) With the forming of decision management system, the prepared projects of Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation are evaluated.(4) With the design of scrolling exploitation model, the evaluation result of Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation project is demonstrated, accordingly, the project decision suggestions are produced.Within the whole procedures of this research, the standard model of decision management is adopted, and also the theory and method of decision management is innovatedly applied to solve the problem of the project optimization of Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation.In this research, the practice of decision management theory in the field of the project optimization of river cascade hydropower exploitation has well been explored, the conclusion of this reaearch is not only significant in reality to Bai Shui Jiang River cascade hydropower exploitation, but also worth of being a valuable reference to the other large or middle scale river cascade hydropower exploitation engineering.