Research On Heat Load Forecasting And Optimization Of Operation And Regulation Of District Heating System

At present, district heating system is very popular in northern part of China and develops rapidly. The system consumes large quantity thermal energy which is of low level. The low level thermal energy which is usually 120℃is mainly supported by high level thermal energy, so it has much energy saving potential in district heating system operation, how to carry out the regulation to make the system run in best condition is a hot topic which is urgently to be solved, the relative theory and research have been focused.The primary heating networks are generally regulated by quality and quantity method. The optimization objective is the minize operation cost. The constraints conditions are dynamic characteristic of heating networks. The supply temperature and return temperature are variable value. The operation cost equation is set up and to be solved. The corresponding software program is also developed. Through the comparison, it is proved that the equation presented in this paper is of validity. Tt is also pointed out that the quality and quantity regulation is prior to the central heating quality regulation. And the non-linear optimize method is proved more efficient than toolbox of MATLAB and step method.For the heat load prediction is basis for the regulation of district heating system, considering the nonlinear characteristic and dynamic characteristic of the heat load which may be related to many factors, the neural works technology is adopted to implement the heat load prediction of secondary heat station. The method of confirm the Bp neural work structure and parameters is presented in this paper and the software is used to predict the real data. By the analysis of the prediction result, it is proved that he BP neural applied in the heat load prediction can get high accuracy and meet the common demand.Visual C# and Microsoft Visual studio 2008 Program platform are applied in this paper to implement the above algorithm and program. The excellent basic frame is provided for the following research and development of software.