Study On The Design And Key Technique Of Urban Road Traffic Conditions Identification And Forecast System

At the present, traffic congestion has become a serious problem that affects peoples'daily life and work. From the running process of urban traffic, if we can justify and forecast the traffic congestion reliably and take some timely, effectively traffic management measures, it can avoid traffic congestion or reduce its severity, and also if we can timely recover traffic incident and conduct a targeted management, it can not only reduce the risk of trapped people, the occurrence of secondary accidents, but also provide timely information to the drivers, thereby reducing the adverse traffic impact of the incident. So, the discovery of the existence of road traffic congestion and traffic incidents, and the prediction of their impact, can make good use of the resources of the road transportation system, and then conduct the targeted control measures could effectively improve the efficiency and safety of the road transport.With the support of the 863 Program'Research on the urban road traffic conditions indentification method based on multi-source real-time traffic data', the paper conduct the requirement analysis, the system analysis and design of the urban road traffic conditions identification and forecast system and then research on a series of the key technology of the traffic conditions identification and forecasting system: traffic condition identification technology and traffic condition forecasting technology. And the actual effects are tested with the simulation tool VISSIM developed by PTV,the simulation conclusions have shown that: the proposed methods can not only justify and forecast the traffic congestion reliably. After that, the efficiency and safety of the road transport could be effectively improved through some timely, effectively traffic management.Contents of every chapters are shown as follows:Chapter One:Describe the research background of urban road state indentification and forecast system, summarize the history and status quo of the key technologie, and then gives the main content of the paper.Chapter Two: Design of the urban road state indentification and forecast system. According the process of user requirement analysis→system analysis and design→ software module division→software implementation→software debugging→system running test→software modification, the paper uses the object oriented advanced programming language, Oracle database etc to develop the urban road state indentification and forecast system.Chapter Three: Research on the urban road area traffic state identification method. The paper analyzed the traffic state of urban road, and proposed the traffic state fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the data fusion of fixed detectors and probe cars. And at the last, the methods was tested the micro traffic simulation tool-VISSIM.Chapter Four: Rsearch on the urban road area traffic state forecast method. Based on the assumption of some certain characteristics of road network, the paper established the theoretical models to analyze the mechanism of traffic congestion so as to forecast the propagation and duration of congestion, and then proposed the proper traffic congestion control strategy. At the last, the methods was tested the simulating result.Chapter Five: Conclusions and the future work. The paper summarized the main contents of the paper and point out the innovation of the research, then gives the further study of tomorrow.