Study On The Wind Power Forecasting Of The Wind Farm

Wind power forecasting is very important to the dispatch,the operation and the management of power systems with wind power. Using time series methods, this paper studies the wind power short-forecasting. Firstly, use time series analysis theory to analysis the history wind speed signal of wind farm, convert it to stationary series and build the mathematical model by time series method which can acquire the wind speed of six-step forecast. To improve the forecasting accuracy, we also build error forecasting model by iterative method and use the model to update the forecasted wind speed. Based on the forecasted wind speed, an output power forecasting model of wind farm was built by considering wind turbine output power characteristics and wake effect. At last, an example of short-term wind power prediction was provided and it achieved the desired result. Matlab 7.1 was also used to demonstrate the validity of this method.