The Research Of Short-term Load Forecasting Technology In Electric Power Load Management System

The short-term load foreecating of electric power system in management system is an important research area of electric power system's operation. It is an important foundation of the study on electric system planning problem, economical running and dispatcher automation. Furthermore, with the establishment of power market, short-term load forecasting will play a more important role in the futhre. With the power system becoming more and more complex, it's demonstrated that those traditional load forecasting technologics can't satisfy the requirement of load forecasting accuracy,which becomes more and more strict. So using intelligent technologics to improve the forcasting accuracy and stability of the load forecasting of electric power system is a new character of short-term load forecasting field of electric power system.Firstly, The paper summarizes the development of electrical power load management and the steps, status quo of short-term load forecasting. Secondly, it introduces the composition of power load management systerm.And then it makes a summary of many traditional and moderm load-forecasting techonologics, especially, introduces the application of ANN in electric power system short-term load forecasting. In order to solve the problems of the slow rate of convergence and falling easily into local minimum in the BP alogorithm, an improved PSO-BP algorithm was used in the paper to train the weights of ANN.Simulation results show that, the neural network forecasting model based on PSO (PSO-BP) creasting capability is obviously better than the neural network model based on BP algorithm.