Analysis And Research For Space Debris Collision Probability And Its Sensitivity

With the frequently expansion of the human's activity in the outer space, the population of the space debris has grown greatly. Several collisions and breakup events in the recent period increased the total number of space debris sharply, these debris are causing serious threat to orbital spacecraft, efficient protection must be done to deal with the growing collision risk. Space debris collision avoidance job mainly aim at big space debris that can be monitored, predict the collision risk between spacecraft and space debris and then evaluate the risk through certain collision criterion. So a reasonable orbit maneuver decision can be made and perform any necessary mitigate action to avoid possible collisions.Currently the space debris collision avoidance system functions have completed day by day, and got the ability to do daily predictions for orbital spacecraft and launch predictions. The main method to evaluate collision risk is through collision probability has formed.This paper mainly researches the space debris collision probability and its sensitivity et al. Based on the space debris collision prediction work, this paper researched the following fields: researched the main compute methods of collision probability, analyzed several factors that affect collision probability, brought forward a new method of maximum collision probability, brought forward the refined error method to the error factor, researched the size estimate model to the size factor, and took into practical application, at last researched the method of analyze the orbital abnormity of orbital objects.Some results in this paper have already been used into the space debris collision avoidance job.