Seasonal Model And Analysis Of Influenza In Hong Kong

Influenza is an acute respiratory disease caused by influenza virus. Influenza can led to serious morbidity and mortality. Each year, 5%-15% of the population in the world would be infected by the influenza viruses. Influenza prevalence has obvious seasonality. Dynamic of influenza in Hong Kong is two peaks yearly, and for a year in the northern China only one peak. According to the animal experimental model, under the conditions of high temperature and humidity the ability of the influenza spread by droplets is low. According to the forecast, the influenza peak of summer in Hong Kong would not be spreaded through the aerosol route. The reason how the Summer rains in Hong Kong cause the influenza peak is not detailed study.This thesis is to analyze the cause of summer peak of influenza transmission by studying the regional climate factors impact on the influenza virus transmission route including the aerosol route and fomite-mediated route in Hong Kong. The paper uses an agent-based modeling(ABM) to model the influenza multipath transmission in Hong Kong. The model was used to simulate and analyze in the Netlogo platform.Results showed that: 1) In the summer, due to the Hong Kong climate factors prevent the transmission of influenza virus in the air. And the influenza virus still can spread through the fomite-mediated route. Hence the fomite-mediated route is the main causes of the Hong Kong influenza peak in summer.2) In winter, the Hong Kong climate factors are conducive to the aerosol route. The transmission via aerosol route is significantly greater than the transmission through fomite-mediated route. So the influenza peak is the result of the fomite-mediated route and the aerosol route in winter.3) The influenza transmission agent based model includes two influenza transmission paths. The model provides a new angle of view for researching the two peaks phenomenon in Hong Kong. The model can explain reasonably the cause of the Hong Kong influenza phenomena from the different tranmission routes of the influenza. Different effective measures in different seasons can be adopted by the public health department.