The Research Of Forest Fuelmoisture Model With Delay Feature

The forest fuel is the material basis of forest burning. When a forest catches fire, The forest fuel, weather, terrain and other conditions are combined to produce a variety of fire behavior. Forest fuel moisture is one of the most important indicators to forest fire danger rating, fire forecasting, planning burning, fire suppression methods and strategies choosing, and the fire fighting operation safety. Hence the research of forest fuel moisture change plays a very important role to prevent forest fire from happening and control the spread of forest fire. The changes of forest fuel moisture are related not only to the initial moisture content of fuel, but also to the moisture changes of their meteorological environment. In the past, such research are carried out assume with that the meteorological factors are always unchanged. But the fact is that the influences of meteorological factors do existing. The influence is very active and it has some delay on forest fuel moisture. To build a delaying fuel moisture model to study the issue is necessary. It will help us to study the issue in a real time pattern and will have very practical significance and produce very great application value.Based on the field observation data of April,2008 and April,2009 with Forestry Bureau of HanJiaYuanZi, Heilongjiang, through analysis, set up a fuel moisture model which could be used to predict the moisture changes in real time, the model is based on three differential equation, conclusions as follows:Based on factor analysis, temperature, relative humidity and wind speed of some time were chose as model factors. With the first set of factor of one moment, build a modelâ… and through test, the accurate rate reaches 97%. With two sets of factor of two moment, build a modelâ…¡and through test, the accurate rate reaches 98%. With three sets of factor of three moment, after adjust modelâ…¡, we got modelâ…¢, and the accurate rate of modelâ…¢could reach to 98.5%. It could reflect the relationship between the change of factors and change of the humidity very well.The results show that:Modelâ…¡is better than modelâ… , and modelâ…¢is better than modelâ…¡, hence the modelâ…¢could be used to forecast the moisture in the end.